Property Value Trend
MLS statistics indicate that the average and median sale prices for single family homes in the Cincinnati neighborhood of Clifton from 8/1/2010 to 8/1/2011 were $170,876 and $120,000 respectively.
This is a decline of 8.60% from the average and 13.36% from the median sale prices of $186,955 and $138,500 from 8/1/2009 to 8/1/2010.
Inventory / Marketing Time
As of 8/1/2011 there have been 85 sales in the last 12 months, indicating an absorption rate of 7.08 per month over the year.
There are currently 62 active listings, which represents an 8.8 month supply at last years average absorption rate. The trend is judged to be an *over supply.
Demand / Supply
There are 12 pending sales which is a **soft ratio of 5.2:1 listings to pending sales, indicating that the current market’s pace has slowed compared to the average over the last year.
Investors wanting to buy homes at or near the bottom of the market (before prices start increasing), should watch for shrinking inventory (as measured in number of months supply of active listings) coupled with increasing demand (as measured by listings to pending sales ratio).
Clifton Single Family Housing Profile
***Typical single family homes range in age from 10 to 150 years.
****Predominant age range is 80 to 120 years old.
***Typical single family homes range in sale price from $7,000 to $540,000.
****Predominant sale price range in the last year was $60,000 to $250,000.
Investors should give strong consideration to the implications of investing in homes that are above the typical price range of homes in the neighborhood. Such homes are widely considered to be “over-improvements”. One of the investor’s best strategies of “forced appreciation through home improvement” will likely be limited to needed repairs or not profitable. Appreciation from the increase in value of competing homes, which will likely be in other neighborhoods, will often suffer from being in a neighborhood of less valuable homes.
Of course appreciation is not the only measure of a good investment. Fix and flip properties and properties with a strong positive cash flow can be good investments without appreciating. But knowing the neighborhood before buying can help the real estate investor properly evaluate the expectation of future financial benefits.
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*A 5 to 6 month inventory is typically considered to be a balanced market. Inventory of greater than a 6 month supply is judged to be an over supply of available homes for sale. Less than 5 months is viewed as a shortage situation.
**A normal ratio of listings to pending sales is typically considered to be between 3:1 and 5:1. Ratios of greater than 5:1 represent increasingly weaker demand, while ratios of less than 3:1 indicate increasingly stronger demand.
***Typical ranges may exclude statistical outliers that would mislead or lessen the reader’s understanding as to the nature of the neighborhood’s housing stock or price range.
****Predominant is defined here as greater than 50 percent of house ages or sale prices.